Democratic trifectas after the midterms have opened a path for states to join a compact that would award electoral votes to the national popular-vote winner — if enough states pass it before 2028.
What changed on Election Night
Democrats won full control of several state governments on Tuesday, according to NBC News, which cited The Associated Press. A trifecta means one party holds the governor’s office and both chambers of the state legislature.
NBC reported Democratic trifectas in:
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Nevada
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
Axios said those kinds of wins — including in battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada — could give lawmakers the votes to push an interstate deal past the threshold that would change how presidential electors are awarded. Arizona’s legislative races were still being counted Wednesday, with Democrats leading in both chambers and claiming a likely trifecta, according to KJZZ.
What the compact would do
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an agreement among states. Member states promise to give their Electoral College votes to the candidate who wins the most votes nationwide, not necessarily the candidate who wins inside that state.
It only takes effect when member states together hold at least 270 electoral votes — a majority of the Electoral College. According to National Popular Vote, 19 jurisdictions already account for 222 electoral votes. Another 48 would activate the deal.
Supporters say that would make every voter’s ballot count equally in choosing the president. The Electoral College would still exist on paper; participating states would simply change how they assign electors.
Support and pushback
Compact backers argue Article II of the Constitution lets each state legislature decide how to appoint electors. Patrick Rosenstiel of the National Popular Vote coalition has said the approach delivers what most voters want: a national popular vote for president, according to The Center Square.
Critics say it sidesteps a constitutional amendment. Jason Snead of the Honest Elections Project told The Center Square the plan avoids the hard work of winning supermajority support in Congress and among the states. Virginia Republicans earlier called that state’s decision to join “an unconstitutional assault on our democracy,” Fox News reported in April.
Axios also noted that Michigan did not enact the compact during its last Democratic trifecta, and that a former Nevada Democratic governor vetoed it in 2019. Lawmakers would still have to pass new bills. Courts could hear challenges, including over whether Congress must approve the compact.
What happens next
Nothing changes for 2028 unless enough states actually join. Watch whether new Democratic majorities in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and possibly Arizona move bills that have been introduced before. Until member states hit 270 electoral votes, each state keeps awarding electors the way it does now.
Sources: Axios · NBC News · National Popular Vote · The Center Square · Fox News · KJZZ
